The 2016 MLB Draft: A Redraft and Analysis
As we approach the 2026 MLB Draft, it's natural to reflect on past drafts and wonder how things could have turned out differently. The 2016 MLB Draft, in particular, stands out as a class that could have been better, with several high picks failing to live up to expectations. In this article, I take a deep dive into the 2016 MLB Draft, redrafting the top 30 picks based on what we know now and offering my analysis and commentary on each selection.
Will Smith, C (Dodgers, 32nd pick)
Will Smith was a strong defensive catcher who rarely struck out in college, but he lacked power, hitting just seven homers. Smith has become the Dodgers' greatest player development success story in the past decade, hitting 11 homers in 2017 and 20 in 2018. While he's second in career WAR right now, he's likely to end up leading this class when they're all retired, thanks to his value as a part-time catcher. Personally, I think Smith's development is a testament to the Dodgers' player development system, and his ability to hit and get on base without sacrificing power is a fascinating case study in player development.
Pete Alonso, 1B (Mets, 64th pick)
Pete Alonso has 280 career homers, leading this draft by 134 at this writing. While I think his best years are behind him, he should have several more 2-3 WAR seasons in him, maybe a little better if he can DH instead of playing first base. Alonso wasn't a huge power hitter in college, but he saw his home run total jump in his draft year. In my opinion, Alonso's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and player development. Had he been drafted earlier, he might have had a different career trajectory.
Bryan Reynolds, OF (Giants, 59th pick)
Bryan Reynolds was like Alonso in that he saw his home run total jump in his draft year, but he struck out more than you'd like for a first-rounder at that time. Reynolds took off when the Pirates got him, and he is one of the Neil Huntington era's best player development efforts. What makes this particularly fascinating is the contrast between his early struggles and his eventual success. Reynolds' ability to adapt and improve is a testament to his work ethic and the Pirates' player development system.
Bo Bichette, SS (Blue Jays, 66th pick)
Bo Bichette was extremely well-known as a prospect, thanks to his dad (Dante), his brother (Dante Jr.), and his experience playing at a ton of showcase events. Bichette's ability to get the bat to the ball was evident, but his very unorthodox swing kept him from going in the first round. The Jays made the right call in taking Bichette, and his success with the Blue Jays is a fascinating case study in the impact of team fit and player development.
Corbin Burnes, RHP (Brewers, 111th pick)
Corbin Burnes was a fourth-round pick out of Saint Mary's, but with the Milwaukee Brewers, he developed into a Cy Young Award winner and eventually a prime free agent target. Burnes' success is a testament to the Brewers' player development system and their ability to identify and develop talent. What makes this particularly interesting is the contrast between his early draft position and his eventual success.
Shane Bieber, RHP (Indians, 122nd pick)
Shane Bieber turned out to be the earliest evidence that Cleveland was up to something, targeting pitchers with good deliveries and control a little later in the draft. Bieber's control was ridiculous even at UC-Santa Barbara, and his success with the Indians is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft strategy and player development.
Zac Gallen, RHP (Cardinals, 106th pick)
Zac Gallen hasn't been the same pitcher for a year-plus now, and there's a chance he's done. But if this is it, he's still had a heck of a career for a third-rounder. Gallen's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Tommy Edman, IF (Cardinals, 196th pick)
Tommy Edman was a completely unremarkable middle infielder at Stanford with a slappy swing who failed to hit .300 or slug .400 in any of his three seasons for the Cardinal. The Cardinals loved his actions and range at second and third, along with his plus speed. Edman's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of team fit and player development.
Jesús Luzardo, LHP (Nationals, 94th pick)
Jesús Luzardo received a $1.4 million bonus, over slot at for pick 94, about mid-second round money. He was a first-round talent but had had Tommy John surgery that spring. Luzardo's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of injury and recovery on a player's career.
Sean Murphy, C (A's, 83rd pick)
Sean Murphy could really throw, defended well and flashed power. I think he's been a slightly better version of what scouts who liked him thought he'd become. Murphy's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of health and development on a player's career.
Cole Ragans, LHP (Rangers, 30th pick)
Cole Ragans underwent two Tommy John surgeries that cost him three seasons, so he didn't even throw a pitch in full-season ball until 2021. Ragans' success is a fascinating case study in resilience and the impact of injury on a player's career.
Michael King, RHP (Marlins, 353rd pick)
Michael King was a 12th-round pick out of Princeton, but the Marlins traded him to the Yankees 17 months after drafting him in exchange for Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith. King's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of team fit and player development.
Brandon Marsh, OF (Angels, 60th pick)
Brandon Marsh was a two-sport star in high school, playing wide receiver until his senior year when he quit playing hand-egg to focus on baseball. Marsh's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B (Rays, 390th pick)
Nathaniel Lowe played just one year at Mississippi State, starting at Mercer and then spending a year at a junior college. Lowe's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Austin Hays, OF (Orioles, 91st pick)
Austin Hays debuted in the majors in 2017, but his career was derailed temporarily when Buck Showalter refused to give him any opportunities the following year. Hays' success is a fascinating case study in the impact of team fit and player development.
Aaron Civale, RHP (Indians, 92nd pick)
Aaron Civale was a reliever for Northeastern for two years, then broke out as a starter in his draft year. Civale's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft strategy and player development.
Cal Quantrill, RHP (Padres, 8th pick)
Cal Quantrill was a bit of a surprise pick for San Diego, as he was still coming back from Tommy John surgery at that point. Quantrill's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of injury and recovery on a player's career.
David Bednar, RHP (Padres, 1044th pick)
David Bednar was a starter in college, went to one of the Padres' predraft workouts, and then immediately went into the bullpen on signing. Bednar's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of team fit and player development.
Tony Gonsolin, RHP (Dodgers, 281st pick)
Tony Gonsolin signed for the smallest bonus of anyone on this list, just $2,500, as a senior sign out of Saint Mary's. Gonsolin's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Gavin Lux, SS (Dodgers, 20th pick)
Gavin Lux has turned into a league-average hitter with no position between throwing issues and a catastrophic ankle injury that cost him all of 2023. Lux's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of injury and development on a player's career.
Luke Raley, OF (Dodgers, 221st pick)
Luke Raley became a regular at age 28, in 2023, and thanks to above-average power and magnets in his body that attract pitches to him. Raley's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Dean Kremer, RHP (Dodgers, 431st pick)
Dean Kremer pitched one season for UNLV after transferring from a junior college, and struck out 46 in 82 innings. Kremer's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Nicky Lopez, SS (Royals, 163rd pick)
Nicky Lopez had no power at all in college, with zero homers in his first two years and then a whopping two as a junior. Lopez's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Braxton Garrett, LHP (Marlins, 7th pick)
Braxton Garrett might be the high school pitcher who broke me. Garrett's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Alex Call, OF (White Sox, 86th pick)
Alex Call reached the majors in 2022 and has made a career for himself because he will draw walks, with walk rates over 10 percent in every one of his major-league seasons, and can play all three outfield spots. Call's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Eric Lauer, LHP (Padres, 25th pick)
Eric Lauer was a polished, finesse lefty at Kent State who’d show an above-average slider, dominant in a mid-major but with a lower ceiling at the time. Lauer's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
JoJo Romero, LHP (Phillies, 107th pick)
JoJo Romero’s another late bloomer from this class. Romero's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of team fit and player development.
Anthony Bender, RHP (Royals, 613th pick)
Anthony Bender never got out of A-ball with the Royals, so they released him in the spring of 2023. Bender's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
Dylan Lee, LHP (Marlins, 293rd pick)
Dylan Lee is a testament to the power of throwing strikes. Lee's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft strategy and player development.
John Schreiber, RHP (Tigers, 445th pick)
John Schreiber signed for just a $6,000 bonus as a senior out of an NAIA school. Schreiber's success is a fascinating case study in the impact of draft position and the potential for late-round picks to become stars.
